This week, a landmark global conference was held for natural hazard management. The four-day World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Data Conference attracted over 1800 registrations and was held in a fully online format, with participants from all over the world despite a schedule that strongly favoured European and African time zones.
Data and the miracle of meteorology
So why was a conference on such a dry subject as ‘data’ so important for natural hazards management, and why are WMO the critical drivers? It comes back to the miracles of science and diplomacy that drive weather services. Modern meteorology, including related fields such as oceanography and hydrology, rests on three pillars:
- The near-simultaneous and free exchange of observational data around the world
- Our scientific ability to analyse that data, understand the current situation, and predict what will happen next
- The supercomputing advances that enable us to do that work in real time and share the results with each other.
It’s difficult to understate the magnitude of what has been achieved using this approach. In meteorology, we can now make forecasts of what will happen at a location more than a week in advance, making more probabilistic forecasts of how months and seasons will turn out, and making long-range climate predictions based on observations, physics and computing. The skill of these forecasts keeps improving, just as science and computing keep improving, and that directly results in longer-range and more accurate predictions of weather-related hazards for communities, meaning more lives are saved and less property is lost to disaster. In the field of recent human achievements, this comes into the ‘outstanding’ category.
But all of this rests on data, and useful collection and exchange of data does not just happen – like any good, productive and beautiful garden, it needs constant care and attention. WMO and its predecessor, the International Meteorological Organization, have coordinated and regulated the international exchange of observations and other meteorological data for the last 150 years.
The need for change
Let’s go a bit corporate. WMO has a strategic vision, to:
“By 2030… ..see a world where all nations, especially the most vulnerable, are more resilient to the socioeconomic consequences of extreme weather, climate, water and other environmental events; and underpin their sustainable development through the best possible services, whether over land, at sea or in the air”.
This is supported by the WMO Strategic Plan, which includes objectives such as:
- Objective 1.1 Strengthen national multihazard early warning/alert systems and extend reach to better enable effective response to the associated risks.
- Objective 2.2 Improve and increase access to, exchange and management of current and past Earth system observation data and derived products through the WMO Information System (WIS). The useful shelf life for observations accessed through the WIS is unlimited. Atmospheric composition, climate, hydrological and oceanographic observations from all times will need to be continuously available and accessible for research, climate monitoring, re-analysis and other applications.
- Objective 2.3 Enable access and use of numerical analysis and Earth system prediction products at all temporal and spatial scales from the WMO seamless Global Data Processing and Forecasting System (GDPFS). Major weather patterns are routinely predicted more than a week ahead, tropical cyclone landfalls are predicted accurately several days ahead, and even small-scale severe weather with high local impact is often forecasted with enough lead-time to mitigate its impact. WMO will further promote the development of Earth system Prediction, facilitate the use of cascading seamless system of numerical models operated by centres around the world and coordinated through WMO to enhance national forecasting capabilities of all Members.
You can’t do this without a modern approach to data, and the data landscape has been evolving rapidly along with the details of the mission. As noted on the conference website:
‘Since the establishment of WMO in 1950, the activities of the organization have expanded into areas such as atmospheric composition, hydrology and space weather, leading to a holistic approach to Earth system modelling and prediction being adopted as a strategic priority of the organization. In parallel, the explosive growth in demand for weather, climate and other environmental data from all sectors of society has led to a dramatic increase in the involvement of entities outside the traditional group of WMO National Hydrological and Meteorological Services in monitoring and prediction efforts.’
New functions, many public and private organizations involved, lots of data – in some ways this sounds like a nightmare to manage, but an alternative way to think about is that it’s an intoxicating mix, because there is so much that can be achieved.
Cold war cooperation
The early highlight of the conference was undoubtedly the keynote speech by Australian Professor John Zillman, a former President of WMO and former long-serving Director of the Bureau of Meteorology in Australia. Professor Zillman outlined the incredible achievements discussed above, taking us back to the 1800s for the pre-history, and reminding us of an extraordinary Cold War event:
‘All of the accumulated experience and wisdom of the founding fathers of WMO and the successful implementation of the IGY was built into the September 1961 proposal from US President Kennedy to the United Nations that meteorology should lead the way in international global cooperation in the peaceful uses of outer space; in the responding General Assembly Resolution of December 1961 (Zillman, 2013); and especially in a remarkable March 1962 exchange of letters (Edwards, 2010) between President Kennedy and Soviet Premier Krushchev through which the US and USSR agreed to joint establishment of an operational weather satellite observation system to support the provision of meteorological services for all nations:
• Kennedy to Krushchev (7 March 1962) Perhaps we could render no greater service to mankind through our space programs than by the joint establishment of an early operational weather satellite system. Such a system would be designed to provide global weather data for prompt use by any nation. To initiate this service, I propose that the United States and the Soviet Union each launch a satellite to photograph cloud cover and provide other agreed meteorological services for all nations. 4
• Krushchev to Kennedy (21 March 1962) It is difficult to overstate the benefit which could be brought to mankind by organising a world weather observation service with the aid of artificial earth satellites. Precise and timely weather forecasts will be another important step along the way to mans’ conquering of nature, will help him still more successfully cope with natural calamities and open up new prospects for improving the well-being of mankind. Let us cooperate in this field, too.’
Professor Zillman also noted the great leap of faith in WMO adopting the current policy on free exchange of data, known as Resolution 40, in 1995. The resolution was build on a fragile consensus rooted in the ‘deep-seated belief in the goodness of international cooperation in meteorology than of any particular line of legal or economic argument’, and ‘few of those who rose in standing ovation at its adoption knew how we were going to make it work.’
Cooperation for the greater good does not naturally happen. It requires risks, demands faith in the better parts of human nature, and takes a great deal of work. For anybody concerned at the current state of the world, take comfort – if Krushchev and Kennedy could find that common ground, we can be inspired to find our own ways to make a difference.
The work ahead
Over the rest of the conference, we did indeed get to hear of the amount of work being done by the international community, including government, non-government, and volunteer work, and including the results of preparatory workshops to the conference. Many presentations and posters showed us the societal value and impact created by sharing observations, and many showed us the challenges still to be faced. Despite the progress made, particularly in satellite observations, there are still enormous gaps in our current observations networks. Bold proposals have been forward to address this ongoing issue, such as the WMO Systematic Observations Financing Facility. A new WMO Resolution, provisionally known as Resolution 42, is being drafted to update Resolution 40 and companion resolutions.
The Conference outcome material captures the key moments of the conference. For the perspective of anybody involved in natural hazards, this work is important. For those outside the meteorological and hydrological domains, it may all seem less immediate because of WMO’s traditional focus on weather, climate and water and the dry nature of navigating through UN processes. However the principles and challenges discussed this week apply across the board, and one of those future challenges is to have us all sharing data seamlessly across disciplines, in support of truly integrated Multi Hazard Early Warning Systems. That means that seismologists, volcanologists, fire specialists and others will eventually benefit from all of this hard work. And it will be hard – we all know that there are no simple fixes when it comes to the sustainable operation of reliable observation networks across the world.
The value of meteorological and hydrological services is generally estimated at around the 10:1 mark (ie for every $1 invested there is around $10 of societal benefit). Achieving that number, or, preferably much more than that number, requires discipline, including investment in observations that are useful, sustainable and shared. The greater the discipline, the better the outcomes and the more attractive the investment when compared to other priorities. What’s at stake here is a new global best practice for making and sharing observations that make a difference, with an extraordinarily high net societal benefit. It’s worth the effort of getting that right.